Прогнозирование повторных продаж с помощью диффузных моделей
Авторы Ду Шаохуэй
Название магистерской диссертации Прогнозирование повторных продаж с помощью диффузных моделей
Факультет Высшая школа менеджмента
Направление подготовки Бизнес-аналитика и большие данные
Год 2021
Научный руководитель Кудрявцев Дмитрий Вячеславович
Описание цели, задач и основных результатов Цель этого исследования – улучшить способность моделей машинного обучения предсказывать поведение потребителей при повторной покупке за счет слияния моделей.
Задачи исследования:
1. Обработка данных и разработка функций.
2. Моделирование и сравнительная оценка моделей.
3. Применение и улучшение модели слияния.
Основные результаты включают систематическое сравнение широко используемых моделей машинного обучения и методов объединения моделей в отрасли, а также усовершенствование метода объединения моделей с накоплением.
Ключевые слова Прогнозирование выкупа, слияние моделей, классификация, классификационная модель машинного обучения.
1.1. Background
With the development of e-commerce in China, major local e-commerce platforms such as Tmall, JD.com, and Vipshop have emerged one after another, and more and more people are participating in online shopping. Compared with traditional shopping models, online shopping has great advantages such as convenience, real-time, and no space restrictions. However, while online shopping brings convenience to people, it also causes problems such as information overload. On the one hand, users are struggling to find their favorite products in the face of a large amount of product information. On the other hand, businesses often get lost in user groups and cannot achieve accurate marketing information delivery.
In order to help users and merchants establish a wide range of contacts, and promote e-commerce platforms to reach more transactions, each e-commerce platform has adopted intelligent systems to analyze users’ needs and preferences and recommend products for them. Consumers’ repurchase behavior prediction is to analyze the their past historical behavior data to analyze the rules of their purchase behavior, and then predict the their future repeat purchase behavior. This technology can be applied to the recommendation system of e-commerce platforms to help merchants identify users with repeated purchase intentions, so that merchants can take more targeted marketing measures, improve user experience, and enable users and merchants to establish a lasting and reliable Relationship, prompting users to buy more products.
1.2. Research motivation
Consumer repurchase behavior is an important measure of their loyalty, and it has always been a research hotspot in the field of marketing. Before the popularization of online shopping, limited by data, the research hotspots of repeat purchase behavior generally focused on its influencing factors, trying to estimate which type of user group would be most likely to produce repeat purchase behavior through the research of influencing factors.
With the development of big data technology and the continuous growth of e-commerce platforms, personal information such as consumer interests and hobbies, and daily shopping behavior information are accumulated in the databases of major e-commerce platforms, gradually forming massive amounts of data. It has been discovered that through the mining of online shopping behavior big data, users’ repeated purchase behavior can be predicted in advance, and it can even be specifically predicted to which merchants each user has repeated purchase intentions. Therefore, the research on repurchase behavior has a new direction. Some studies have begun to pay attention to the technology related to the prediction of user repeat purchase behavior, and gradually apply relevant algorithms in the field of machine learning to the prediction problem of repurchase behavior.
The research of consumer repurchase prediction problem can be applied to the intelligent recommendation system of e-commerce platform to help merchants identify users with repeated purchase intentions. Obviously, a high-precision forecasting system can help more merchants and users establish consumer relationships, thereby bringing huge profits to the e-commerce platform. Therefore, the prediction accuracy and generalization performance of related models used to predict repeat purchase behavior are particularly important.
However, when the existing machine learning model is applied to repeat purchase behavior prediction, its prediction accuracy is low, and the prediction effect is only slightly better than random guessing. Such an effect is difficult to produce valuable effects when applied to a recommendation system. Through combing the literature on the influencing factors of repeat purchase behavior, it is found that consumers’ purchase behavior is controlled by a series of complicated subjective factors, including perceived value, satisfaction, trust, etc. . These influencing factors make the repeat purchase behavior of users diversified and different. When these complex and diverse behavior patterns are hidden in the data, it will bring great difficulties to the fitting of the machine learning model. The difference in user behavior rules is an important reason that restricts the accuracy of prediction, and none of the existing machine learning models can solve this problem well.
1.3. Research goal
Improve the predictive ability of machine learning models on consumer repurchase behavior through model fusion.
1.4. Research question
1. How to mine user data characteristics in multiple dimensions.
2. How to evaluate the prefetching ability of the model fusion method.
3. How to improve the model fusion method.
Academic Literature in English
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Academic Literature in Other Languages
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16.祝歆,刘潇蔓,陈树广,李静,张天宇.基于机器学习融合算法的网络购买行为预测研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2017,32(12):94-100.
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