Демократический аудит Македонии: методология мониторинга
В своем тезисе я пытаюсь объяснить создание демократии в Республике Македонии. Со времени своей независимости в 1991 году и изменения ее системы от социалистического до парламентского демократического типа управления Македония пытается внедрить демократию. Имеет ли Македония стабильную демократию или нет, а если не то, что должна сделать Македония, чтобы построить демократический потенциал с принципами благого управления? Ответы на эти и другие вопросы даются и объясняются в этой работе. Диссертация разделена на две части. Первая часть – сравнительный социально-экономический анализ между Словенией и Македонией. Словения взята в качестве примера, потому что страна имеет много общего с Македонией. Словения была частью той же федерации Югославии с Македонией, она имела ту же систему управления, она имеет более или менее одинаковый размер территории и населения по сравнению с Македонией, это новая демократия (почти 30 лет, как и Македония) и сейчас парламентская демократическая система. Помимо этих сходств Словения гораздо более развита, чем Македония, и я приводил пример этого с помощью различных социально-экономических показателей, таких как: ВВП, уровень безработицы, среднемесячный доход, отчеты Freedom House, статистика Всемирного банка, индекс демократии и т. д. В конце я объясню, почему Словения стала успешной. Вторая часть посвящена центральному исследовательскому вопросу этого тезиса, а именно: что должна сделать Македония, чтобы построить стабильную демократическую систему спустя почти 30 лет с тех пор, как она стала парламентской демократией? Я вижу ответ на этот вопрос в работе американского социолога Сеймура Мартина Липсета, в частности его статью «Социальные реквизиты демократии». Здесь он дает, какие факторы и реквизиты имеют решающее значение для страны, чтобы иметь демократию. Объясняются такие факторы, как экономика, верховенство закона и экономический порядок, политическая культура, политические партии, участие граждан, права меньшинств, избирательные системы и т. д. Я беру эти факторы, объясняю их и сравниваю их с нынешней ситуацией в Македонии. Как Македония делает по каждому фактору, что еще нужно делать и т. д. Анализируются различные отчеты, научные статьи, аналитические документы, статистические данные, чтобы дать ответ на каждый фактор, а также дальнейшая рекомендация. Особое внимание уделяется факторам – избирательным системам, поскольку я думаю, и я объясняю, что изменение избирательной системы может повлиять на другие факторы, которые имеют решающее значение для стабильности демократических возможностей округа. Я отмечаю, что некоторые условия очень важны, в то время как некоторые из них не имеют большого значения, но все же они необходимы. В любом случае некоторые из них являются относительными и могут быть важными в данный момент времени и в контексте. Вот почему разные страны могут по-разному реагировать на некоторые реквизиты, и это во многом зависит от конкретной ситуации и других условий.
The main focus of this analysis is the democratization process in the Republic of Macedonia. It is a country situated in South Eastern Europe on the Balkan Peninsula. It gained independence from Yugoslavia in 1991 and since then the country keeps trying to implement democracy; although the country is declared democracy still in practice there is a lack of democracy. The issue of making attempts for democratization will be discussed and analyzed. The main reason for choosing this topic for the thesis is the wish of the Macedonians to have real democracy in their country, to have stable and effective institutions, to have good governance led by credible politicians and to have stability and prosperity once and for all, because with the help of different indicators and statistics we will see that there is not so developed democracy in the country.
The thesis is separated in two parts. The first part is dedicated to the comparative analysis between the socio – economic and political indicators of the Republic of Slovenia and Republic of Macedonia. Slovenia was chosen for the analysis because it has the same size of territory and population, because both of them have parliamentary democracies as type of political system of the countries, and most of all because it is ex-communist country; it was a part of the same federation of Yugoslavia along with Macedonia. These factors influenced on the decision for comparing Macedonia with Slovenia. Having many similarities, still both of the countries are very different in regards of development. We will see in the first part that Slovenia is way ahead of Macedonia. Comparative statistical analysis is going to be used to prove this. The following indicators are used for the analysis: United Nations Human Development Index, Gini coefficient, GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment rate, average monthly salaries, Freedom House report for 2017, and Democracy Index report for 2016.
This means that we will pay attention not only on the economic factors that influence the democracy and the development of the country, but also socio political factors and reports will be taken into consideration, so we could have one general understanding and proof of the comparison and the fact that Slovenia is more developed in any sense important for the democracy. Comparative and descriptive research methods are used in this part where all the previously mentioned indicators are compared and explained each so we can have clearer image. Statistical socio – economic and political analysis is made, where credible sources are taken for argumentation, such as: UN reports, World Bank reports, Eurostat, Freedom House reports and statistics, State Statistical Offices of both of the countries etc. At the end of the first part of the thesis, an explanation is given on – Why is Slovenia so successful? Which factors were crucial for the country to become that developed, from ex – communist authoritarian state, to capitalistic democratic republic? Special attention will be putted on the days before and after the independence of the country. The main focus will be the approaches and steps that were taken by the Slovenian politicians and their seriousness in emerging to independent state. We will conclude that some of the factors of stabilization are beyond human control, but on contrary they have natural background. The main question at the end of the first part will be – What Slovenia did? Which steps and approaches were taken? But the central moment of this thesis is the democratization process in Macedonia. So, the main question is what should Macedonia do so to have stable democracy and prosperous life for its citizens? Which steps and approaches should the Macedonians make so to move forward? The answers of these questions are given in the second part of this thesis.
In the second part of the thesis, detailed analysis of the article of Seymour Martin Lipset “The Social Requisites of Democracy Revisited” published in 1994 in the academic journal American Sociological Review is provided. In this article, Lipset gives explanation of all the conditions that could influence the democracy and the democratic processes, with some practical examples of different countries. The following factors and indicators are presented: economy, political culture, religion and minorities, legitimacy, executive systems, civil society and citizens’ participation, political parties, rule of law and economic order and at the end the electoral systems. Each of these factors are explained from the point of view of Lipset, and compared with the actual situation in the Republic of Macedonia. Every prerequisite has its own importance for implementing democracy in a country, and that is why each of them is important for our analysis. At the very beginning, as it will follow from time to time, I will note that each factor may “act” different in a given situation, or in a given country. For example the factor electoral system could be important for some post-communist country, rather than for some developed democratic country of a western type, and so on. That is why these factors are not universal and they shouldn’t be taken for granted all of them and implemented in a country. Moreover, they are relative and they could work differently in different countries. However what is important for us is the case in Macedonia and the situation with the democracy in the country. As mentioned above, we are going to analyze the steps and approaches that Macedonia should take so to “move on” further to become more democratic country. Those steps are the requisites which are recommended by Lipset in his article; further we are going to see what the actual state in the country is for each factor and what it needs to be done further.
My thinking is that, if each of these factors is taken seriously by the authorities, then Macedonia could have stable democracy in near future, 10 years more or less. One of the most important factors or as I am going to name them, primary factors are: economy and rule of law, civil society and citizens’ participation and electoral systems. Here I mark that the importance of the free market, lower taxes, less bureaucracy and interference from the government in the private (social and most of all economic) relations between the individuals, minimal State concept; participation of the citizens in the everyday social and political life by NGOs or other groups or individually; and as maybe the most important – the electoral system of the country, are factors which need to have special treatment and further discussion and development for the particular country and its democracy. Just to add that the importance of the electoral system is so big, which means by changing the electoral system you can change and influence many other factors which are also crucial for democratic development. I give special attention for this at the end in the second part of the thesis.
Comparative analysis is used in the second part, between the Lipset’s article and the situation in Macedonia with the help of the descriptive and exploratory approaches. Relevant sources are taken to complete this part of the thesis, such as Macedonian and international think tanks reports, institutions’ analyses, articles, research papers etc.
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