Инструменты манипулирования прибылью российских компаний на основе реальных операций
Основная цель данной работы заключается в определении основных инструментов манипулирования прибылью на основе реальных операций, используемых российскими компаниями, и исследовании зависимости использования каждого инструмента от различных факторов. Для достижения цели исследования выявлены инструменты манипулирования прибылью на основе реальных операций российскими компаниями, изучена зависимость инструментов манипулирования прибылью на основе реальных операций от различных факторов, определена взаимосвязь между реальными и основанными на начислении методами манипулирования прибыль. Выборка состоит из 1064 наблюдений за 133 российскими компаниями з с 2012 по 2019 годы. Первая подгруппа компаний, производящих товары, состоит из 712 наблюдений за 89 компаниями, вторая подгруппа компаний, предоставляющих услуги, состоит из 352 наблюдений за 44 компаниями.
Эконометрический анализ позволил выявить взаимосвязь между каждым инструментом манипулирования прибылью на основе реальных операций и различными факторами компаний, принадлежащих российским компаниям. Манипулирование прибылью на основе реальных операций при помощи манипулирования продажами имеет положительную значительную связь с ростом продаж и отрицательную связь с ROA. Манипулирование прибылью на основе реальных операций при помощи перепроизводства положительную значительно связано с размером компании и ростом продаж и отрицательно зависимо от ROA, в то время как манипулирование прибылью на основе реальных операций при помощи сокращения дискреционных расходов имеет отрицательную значительную связь с размером компании и положительно значимо зависит от роста продаж.
Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 7 Chapter 1. Theoretical Aspects of Real Earnings Management…………………………………………….. 9
1.1 Earnings Management as the Way of Profit Manipulation ……………………………………………… 9
1.1.1 Definition of Earnings Management …………………………………………………………………………. 9
1.1.2 Incentives of Using Earnings Management………………………………………………………………. 10
1.2 Relationship between Accrual-Based and Real Earnings Management…………………………… 12
1.2.1 Difference between Accrual-Based and Real Earnings Management…………………………… 12
1.2.2 Interrelation between Accrual-Based and Real Earnings Management ………………………… 13
1.3 Real Earnings Management as a New Way of Earnings Manipulation …………………………… 14
1.3.1 Definitions of Real Earnings Management ………………………………………………………………. 14
1.3.2 Instruments and Strategies of Real Earnings Management …………………………………………. 16
1.3.3 Factors Affecting the Real Earnings Management…………………………………………………….. 17
1.3.4 Real Earnings Management’s Influence on the Future Performance……………………………. 19
1.3.5 Way of Limiting Real Earnings Management…………………………………………………………… 21
1.4 Approaches to Assessing the Real Earnings Management…………………………………………….. 22
1.4.1 Roychowdury’s Model of Measuring Real Earnings Management ……………………………… 22
1.4.2 Gunny’s Model of Measuring Real Earnings Management………………………………………… 24
1.4.3 Other Models of Measuring Real Earnings Management …………………………………………… 26
1.4.4 Modified Jones’ Model of Measuring Accrual-Based Earnings Management ………………. 28
1.4.5 Hypotheses Development ………………………………………………………………………………………. 30
Chapter 2. Empirical Study of the Instruments of Real Earnings Management Applied by Russian companies ……………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 34
2.1 Research Methodology …………………………………………………………………………………………….. 34 2.1.1 Data Collection …………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 34 2.1.2 Empirical Models and Variables …………………………………………………………………………….. 35
2.2 Empirical Results and Discussion ……………………………………………………………………………… 38
2.2.1 Sample and Subsets Description……………………………………………………………………………… 38
2.2.2 Descriptive Statistics of Variables…………………………………………………………………………… 43
2.2.3 Models’ Results ……………………………………………………………………………………………………. 45 2.2.4 Interpretation of Results ………………………………………………………………………………………… 55
2.2.5 Managerial Implications of Results…………………………………………………………………………. 57
Conclusions …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 59 List of References…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 61 Appendix 1. List of Companies………………………………………………………………………………………. 64 Appendix 2. Sample Descriptive Statistics……………………………………………………………………….. 66
Appendix 3. Descriptive Statistics of Variables………………………………………………………………… 68
Appendix 4. Models Choosing ……………………………………………………………………………………….. 70 Appendix 5. Models Summaries …………………………………………………………………………………….. 72
Main idea of the Master Thesis is to provide information about instruments that are used by Russian companies to manipulate earnings by using real operations such as overproduction, price discounts and reduction of discretionary expenditures. The research will be useful for both investors and auditors because it will show what instruments managers may use in order to improve the financial reports. Analyzing these instruments may reveal manipulations and reduce the possibility of being misled by managers.
The research goal of the Master Thesis is to identify main instruments of real earnings management that are used by Russian companies and investigate the dependence of using each instrument on different factors.
In order to reach the research goal three main research questions of were developed:
1. companies?
2. factors?
What are the instruments of real earnings management that are used by Russian
What is the dependence of real earnings management instruments on different
What are the relationships between real and accrual-based techniques of earnings management activities of companies operating in Russian market?
Also, the objectives of the Master Thesis were formulated to provide a better vision of the achievement of the research goal:
1. To study the existing articles on the earnings management;
2. To determine what are the most common instruments of real earnings management;
3. To study existing approaches to determine instruments of real earnings
management and choose the most appropriate one for the Russian market;
4. To conduct the research on what are the instruments of real earnings used by
Russian companies;
5. To formulate the managerial implications of the results.
For now, very few studies are based on the research of real earnings management, despite the fact that there is a large number of evidences that managers of various companies are engaged in profit manipulation by using real operations. Moreover, toughening of the legislation in order to protect investors’ rights, that takes place almost every year, lead to the situation in which managers have to switch from the accrual-based earnings management to the real earnings
3.
7
management in order to control their company’s profit to meet the benchmark and, thus, mislead both external and internal investors.
It is crucial to study real earnings management, due to managers switching from accrual- based to real earnings management.
Even despite recent increase in the number of studies devoted to real earnings management, there is still not enough information that will be helpful for determining it. The results of past studies on the real earnings management are mostly contradictory on some points, such as effect of using real earnings management on future performance, auditors’ sensitivity and reactions on real earnings management, etc.
The other reason why this topic is relevant is uncertainty on instruments of real earnings management. For now, there are only several instruments of real earnings management are determined, and opinions on them are contradictorily as well. Company may use overproduction by producing abnormal amounts in order to decrease fixed costs by distributing overheads throughout the units, and, thereby, improve earnings per certain period [Hashemi and Rabiee, 2011, p.26]. Also, it may use marketing operations in order to increase sales. This type of real earnings management is more likely to appear at the end of the fiscal period, when the company is desperate to achieve certain goals by managing sales [Chapman and Steenburgh, 2010]. The reduction of the price tends to have short-term effect, while regular advertising is mostly aimed on longer effect. R&D may be a part of real earnings management as well. Company can save its costs by cutting the R&D expenditures, however, these operations are likely to reduce company’s ability to compete with companies that are involves in R&D [Gunny, 2010]. Despite the awareness on these aspects of real earnings management, it is clear that these are not the only ways to manipulate earnings. Determining other instruments of real earnings management will help auditors to determine whether managers are engaged in company’s income manipulations, studying these instruments will help to eliminate the negative effect of real earnings management of both auditors and investors.
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