Влияние торговой войны между Соединенными Штатами Америки и Китайской Народной Республикой на экономику Социалистической Республики Вьетнам

In 2018, a trade war between the United States and China broke out. This happened after US President Donald Trump began to impose import duties on Chinese goods. Beijing retaliated with mirror action against Washington. The parties have repeatedly negotiated to reach mutual agreements that could put an end to the trade war between the two powerful economies, but they have not yet been able to come to a common denominator.
In conditions of evident political instability, as the contradictions between the major powers in the region, the United States and China, are becoming increasingly volatile and the sphere of their rivalry is rising, most Asian countries’ foreign and domestic policies are also highly dependent on these external conditions in relation to them.
A third party that manages to enter the market of a participant in the conflict, replacing his rival, is often the winner in a trade war. The Socialist Republic of Vietnam (SRV) has been such a market where there is no need to pay taxes, which has contributed to the economic recovery of Vietnam due to the active inflow of foreign investment. On the one hand, Vietnam needs to broaden already existing cooperation mechanisms with the USA, and on the other hand, to increase the efficiency of trade and direct investment with the PRC; as a consequence, Vietnam is now enjoying significant advantages in achieving political and economic goals. This unequal triangle, however, entails a variety of questions. Thus, being in the center of the confrontation between the two largest states, Vietnam needs to adhere to a certain strategy to maintain the balance of power. Otherwise, the imbalances in diversification can lead to harmful imbalances in the economy of not only Vietnam, but of the entire Asia-Pacific region, which determines the relevance of this study. In addition, the country is becoming one of the key players in Southeast Asia: Vietnam has been showing macroeconomic stability for 25 years, as evidenced by sustained high economic growth rates. Despite the noticeable negative impact that the coronavirus pandemic has had on all spheres of the republic’s economy, economic activity is confidently returning to its usual state. Against the backdrop of successes in the fight against the spread of coronavirus, the development of the economy has continued according to an optimistic scenario, outstripping China, Indonesia and the Philippines in terms of GDP growth. Due to its advantageous geographical position, Vietnam is a transshipment point for imports from European countries through the Cat Lai port and exports to the USA and the EU through the Kai Mep – Thi Wai port area. With this strategic advantage, Vietnam has great potential for the development of deep-water seaports in the country, creating favorable conditions for the import and export of
goods for industry and contributing to the development of logistics. 3
The scientific problem lies in the fact that, balancing between the two largest powers, when choosing a priority in favor of one or another partner, not only economic and political risks for Vietnam arise, but also security risks that will significantly change the geopolitical map of the world.
The aim of this study is to identify how the trade war between China and the United States influenced Vietnam’s economy.
To achieve the aim of the research, the following tasks were set:
– to study the trade war from the point of view of theories of international relations and
predict the possible course of development of the trade war;
– to analyze the relationship between China and the United States in order to find common ground and to identify disagreements between the countries;
– to consider the causes and course of the trade war between China and the United States;
– to assess the impact of the trade war on the global economy;
– to highlight the main stages of development and reform of the Vietnamese economy, taking into account the transition to market relations;
– to demonstrate the importance of Vietnam’s relations with the United States and China from a historical perspective;
– to evaluate the trade war and its impact on the following sectors of the Vietnamese economy: industry (machinery, footwear, textile and garments), electronic equipment, agriculture, forestry and furniture, transport (automobiles and bikes), financial sector (trade and foreign investment), smart and high-tech technologies and some other;
– to assess the scale of the impact of the ongoing changes in the framework of the trade war on the economy of Vietnam;
– to predict the risks and opportunities for Vietnam’s further growth in the short and long term;
– to analyze the possibilities for Vietnam to replace China as a global manufacturing hub;
– to formulate recommendations for the further development of the Vietnamese economy.
Based on the aim of the study, the author determined the object of study that is the economy of Vietnam in the context of the economic confrontation between the United States and China.
The subject of this research is the relationship between the processes of transformation of the Vietnamese economy in connection with the main events of the trade war.
Chronological framework: the author describes in detail the events taking place during the trade war between the US and China since 2018 till now with more focus on 2019 when the trade war was in its peak. At the same time, in order to understand the complexity of the relations between the countries, the author examines the events in retrospect after the Vietnam War.
The hypothesis of the study is that while Vietnam benefits from the redirection of trade flows and supply chains as a result of the US-China trade war, Vietnam’s industrial growth will have only a short-term positive effect on the country’s economy.
The methodological basis of the research is based on the principles of reliability and scientific objectivity. To solve the set tasks, the following research methods were used as part of an integrated approach to the study of both the Vietnamese economy as a whole and in its individual segments: the historical-genetic method, which allows us to identify the origins of the trade war, the narrative method, which allows us to consistently recall the course of the trade war, relations between the countries, as well as the development of the economy of Vietnam. In addition, the author uses the comparative method in order to identify similarities and differences in the approaches of Vietnam in building complex relations with both the United States and China. Among the main research methods, the author uses the systemic, economic and statistical methods, as well as the method of strategic forecasting taking into account the possible scenarios described in Chapter 3, sub-chapter 3.2. Moreover, scientific research tools such as methods of scientific deduction, grouping, evaluation, analysis of research papers, as well as graphical techniques for reflecting statistical data were used.
The theoretical basis of this study is the works of Russian and foreign authors related to the problems under consideration. For the section 1.2. «The Sino-US Trade War: An Analysis of Great Power Rivalry through the prism of key paradigms of the theory of international relations» the materials of international relations scholars were scrutinized. Scholars, whose ideas assumed as a basis and who represent the realist school of IR are J. Grieco, R. Axelrod, R. Keohane, J. Mearsheimer. Liberalistic point of view is presented in works of R. Gilpin, W. Ming.
The basic concepts of modern neo-Marxism are “world-system” and “world-economy”. The key influential scholar of this school is I. Wallerstein. Other ideas of another dominant approach we analyzed with the help of K.M. Fierke, T. Dunne, M. Kurki, and S. Smith, W. Alexander, A. Vucetic and T. Hopf, and William C. Wohlforth.
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The empirical basis of the study was made up of documents and materials of various nature. They can be divided into several main groups: Doctrinal documents and reports of the US executive branch, including national security strategies, reports of the US Department of Defense and the US Department of State. The National Security Strategy makes it possible to single out the basic principles, goals and priorities of the US foreign and defense policy, to reveal the tools for the implementation of American national interests.
The documents of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Vietnam were also analyzed. The 2019 National Defence White Paper of the Ministry of National Defense of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam contains a description of the fundamental nature of peace and self-defence of Vietnam’s national defence. It also specifies challenges of Vietnam’s defence policy and adjustments to its national defence policy, structure of the Ministry of National Defence etc. It seeks to promote better understanding and confidence building between Vietnam and other countries on the world arena.
The materials of the US Department of State are presented in the dissertation in annual reports of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission in particular Economic Report (February, 2003) of the President transmitted to the Congress together with the annual report of the Council of Economic Advisers, Report to Congress US Department of the Treasury Office of International Affairs (December 2020), Ministry of Planning and Investments of the Department of Foreign Investments of the SRV. In addition, when studying and identifying the vectors of Vietnam’s development for the purpose of its international integration, the author used materials of the 12th CPV Central Committee (CPVCC).
Statistical and factual materials. This group of sources was necessary when analyzing various economic indicators of the United States, China and Vietnam, their system of trade and economic relations. The data extracted from reports and statistics of World Integrated Trade Solution, Institute for the U.S. and Canadian Studies RAS, Congressional Research Center, Statista.com, Asia Society Centre on US-China Relations, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Carnegie Center, World Economic Outlook, Pew Research, reports of the WTO, gso.gov.vn as well as TrendEconomy.ru was used in order to analyze China-US trade issues, economic relations among the countries as well as to scrutinize the trends in the development of international trade.
Materials of news sites and electronic newspapers. In the course of work on the thesis, the author used articles posted on the Vietnamese, Chinese, American and Russian sites: Sohu, Caixin, CNBC, Baijiahao, CGTN, Duowei News, Hexun, Xinlang Zhuanlan, Reuters, vnexpress.net, Vietnews.ru, Vnemba.org.cnm, Bao Ahn Vietnam, Voa News, voatiengviet.eom,
the Diplomat, Kommersant, russian.news.cn, thanhniennews.com, Bloomberg. They are a 6

valuable source of factual information on the issues under consideration.
The author also examined the statements of senior officials and influential persons,
consisting of public speeches, communiqués, speeches and interviews of presidents (in the case of China, General Secretary of the PRC), heads and their deputies of foreign policy and economic departments of the United States, China, Vietnam, materials of press conferences, ministries of foreign affairs of the above-mentioned countries, as well as speeches by other influential persons (especially in the area of international affairs as John Mearsheimer, Joseph Nye). This group of sources allows us to trace the official position of the United States, Vietnam and China on a particular issue and identify their reactions to certain international events.
Secondary sources include the book of Robert G. Sutter «U.S.-China relations: perilous past, uncertain present», the book of James Shinn (Editor), Harold Brown (Foreword) «Weaving the Net: Conditional Engagement with China Paperback» (July 1, 1996) which deal with the current growth of China, its background as well as China-US relations in this regard. To understand the main trends in economics, we used the monography «International trade: yesterday, today, tomorrow» (2017) by V. Vasiliev. This monograph covers the results of research into the development of international trade over the past and early centuries. The authors focus on modern trends in international trade exchange in the context of increasing uncertainty and instability in the development of the world economy and individual national economies. From an economic point of view, the author consulted the book «The United States and China: a history from the eighteenth century to the present» by Dong Wang, director and professor of contemporary Chinese history at the University of Turku in Finland. The book by В. Womack «China and Vietnam: The Politics of Asymmetry» (2006) showed us the asymmetrical relations between Vietnam and China.
The important food for thought was introduced by G. Lokshin in his article «Vietnamese- Chinese relations: tyranny of geography and common sense» (2013). He claims that the future of Vietnamese-Chinese relations depends on the interaction of two constant factors (history and geography) and two variables (China’s domestic and foreign policy and the changing relations of the major powers of the United States – China, China-Japan, China-India and China-Russia). Domestic political considerations are likely to become decisive for both sides in this matter, because their foreign policy is inextricably linked and is a continuation of the domestic one.
The degree of scientific elaboration of the problem. To begin with, the relationship between the United States and China is the subject of research for political scientists, historians, and economists in many countries. As countries directly involved in these relations, the United States and China are conducting the most in-depth studies on this issue. Russian scholars also
participate in the analysis of US-China relations, but not actively enough, especially given the 7

high importance of these relations for the modern international system.
Conventionally, several groups can be distinguished in the corpus of American research
literature on the relations between the United States and China. The first group is the most interesting because it allows American researchers to trace the development of China’s economy. This group covers works that analyze China’s (possible) status as a superpower. The authors pay attention to the changes in China’s foreign and domestic policies that contribute to the country’s growth. In addition, attention is focused on a possible conflict with the United States and its causes. J. Mearsheimer, J. S. Nye, A. Friedberg, Robert R. Ross and others were engaged in the study of these issues.
The second group includes studies which analyze US-Chinese relations from a retrospective point of view or at certain stages of their development. Among the research works of this group are the monographs of N. Tucker, H. Kissinger, J. Mann, J. Holdridge.
The third group consists of works devoted to the study of contemporary American- Chinese relations during the administration of George W. Bush. and B. Obama. Particularly noteworthy are the works of Th. Christensen and D. Lampton, to name a few.
On the whole, it is possible to vision the high intensity of research and development in the United States on American-Chinese relations.
The topic of US-China relations is widely discussed in China as well. Overall, American Studies are deeply studied within liberal arts disciplines in China. There are several large reputable research centers in China that are most actively involved in the development of US- China relations: Institute of Contemporary International Relations of Peking University, Tsinghua University, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences etc.
In the corpus of Chinese scientific research literature, several categories can be also distinguished. The first group contains works in which Chinese researchers try to rethink the structure of the international system, of the balance of power between China and the United States as well as raising contradictions between them.
This group is represented by the works of such famous Chinese scholars as Fu Mengzi, Wu Xinbo, Liu Liping, Wang Honggang, Ma Zhengang etc.
Within the framework of theoretical studies, it is appropriate to single out studies that generally analyze the phenomenon of the country’s rise as well as assess the possibility of creating a US-Chinese armed forced conflict. These are, in particular, the works of Zhao Suisheng, Yuan Peng, to name a few. The existence in a number of states of the so-called theory of the “Chinese threat” stimulates Chinese researchers to search for theoretical forecasting of the possibility of a peaceful, conflict-free rise of China.
The second group includes general studies of historical and political orientation. For 8

instance, here it is possible to single out general works that analyze American-Chinese relations at the present stage, highlight their main developmental directions, as well as bilateral interaction. Well-known Chinese scientists are actively working in this direction such as Jia Qingguo, Wu Xinbo, Liu Liping etc.
In general, it should be noted that the topic of US-China relations is widely represented in the Chinese scientific literature. Chinese writers have explored many aspects of this bilateral relationship. At the same time, there is an important omission in the studies of many Chinese scholars – when analyzing bilateral relations, they take into account only the interests of China, often defending the domestic and foreign policy actions of Chinese leaders and criticizing American diplomacy. Moreover, China has censorship that limits the discussion on some topics and prevents scientific research.
The topic of US-China relations is also presented in Russian scientific literature. The circle of Russian scholars specialized in the study of contemporary US-China relations is extremely narrow. Stable interest in this important topic for the science of international relations is shown in works by S.M. Trush, A.S. Davydov and Y.V. Leksyutina.
Thus, we can notice the underdevelopment of this topic in the works of Russian researchers. Works containing an analysis of the development of Sino-American relations at this stage reveal only some of their aspects and are presented mainly in the form of articles and essays.
Sino-American relations are traced in the books of G. John Ikenberry, Ashley Tellis and R.Blackwill, L. Goldstein. It is recommended to look through the collective article by A. Vinogradov, A. Salitsky, N. Semenova (2019) as well as to the article of V. Mikheev, S. Lukonin (2019). The article (2018) by Y. Leksyutina explains the logic of D. Trump’s trade policy, his motivation behind the initiation of «trade wars», and his vision of the desired world economic order. The last but not least to be mentioned is the promising work of S. Trush (2018).
As we analyze US-China relations and the trade war through the prism of different international relations theories, it seems appropriate to mention the article «International relations in the Asia-Pacific region: theoretical approaches and concepts» (2009) by A.L. Lukin. The author examines realism, liberalism and sociocultural theories of international relations in the Asia-Pacific region.
The problem of medium-sized countries in the region and the development of their policies in the context of rivalry between two large actors are of focus in our research. Analyzing the economy of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, we should mention the book (2018) edited by J. Wilson. In fact, the book contains an analysis of the foreign policy of modern Vietnam, with
close attention paid to the country’s relations with China, the United States and Australia. Among 9

the authors of the monograph, two – Ngan Collins and Le Hong Hiep – linked the evolution of Vietnam’s foreign policy with changes within the country, referring to the Doi Moi reform policy pursued by the CPV since the late 1980s. In this regard, Ngan Collins examines the evolution in the approach of the Vietnamese leadership to the role of state-owned enterprises in the national economy of Vietnam. Another important indicator of the evolution of Vietnam’s foreign policy was the country’s participation in international integration processes. In this context, the author names the following milestones-events: the entry of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam into ASEAN (1995), the conclusion of a trade agreement with the United States (2001), accession to the WTO (2007).
Among the Vietnamese scientists dealing with the issues of foreign economic relations of Vietnam, the following academic economists can be distinguished: Vo Chi Thanh, Nguyen Minh Fong, Truong Dinh Tuen, Pham Chi Lan, Duong Huu Han, Bui Xuan Luu, Iguyen Huu Hai, Nguen Tkhi KHong Nam etc. Western European, American, Asian experts are also increasingly interested in the economic problems of Vietnam’s development: C. Thayer, M. Kazi, E. Fukase, W. Martin, and so on.
International academics have recently written a variety of research articles exploring Sino-Vietnamese relations from various angles. For instance, G. Lokshin (2019) addresses the causes and effects of the Sino-Vietnamese War in 1979. The other article of him (Lokshin, 2013) as well as by M. Pietrasiak and K. Pieczara (2019) address the East Sea dispute in the second decade of the twenty-first century, China’s role on the East Sea, and the challenges facing Vietnam from regional (ASEAN) and international (major countries, such as the United States and Russia) perspectives. Needless to say that their perspectives are very close to those of Vietnamese scholars.
We would like to describe in detail the works of Russian researchers. There should be taken into account the works of E.V. Kobelev (2017), V.N. Kolotov (2016; 2015), A.P. Zvetov (2015), V.M. Mazyrin (2013; 2007), E.V. Petrovsky (2020; 2019), M.S. Zelenkova (2016) etc. It should be noted, however, that so far no comprehensive approach has been proposed to the study of modern problems of the development of the Vietnamese economy in the conditions of balancing between the United States and China.
The theoretical significance of the research lies in the comprehensive analysis and structuring of information about the Vietnamese economy since the mid-20th century and the country’s relations with China and the United States amid the trade war, as well as in deepening the understanding of the impact of the trade war on the world economy as a whole.
The thesis significantly supplements and develops research on this topic. The results of 10

the research and the conclusions of the thesis can be used by Vietnamese official structures interested in keeping the growth of the Vietnamese economy and its further development. The practical value of the work is determined by the further use of the data and materials obtained in the educational process in the courses such as “International Economic Relations”, “Introduction to Vietnamese Studies”, “Political Economy”, “World Economy”, etc.
The structure and scope of the study correspond to the aim, objectives and logic of the study. The thesis consists of an introduction, three chapters «US-China economic confrontation», «Key directions of development of the economy and foreign policy of Vietnam» and «Vietnam amid rivalry between two powers», a conclusion, a list of references and appendices.
Approbation of the work took place at the Moscow State University in the section of World economy and international economic relations (countries of Asia and Africa), subsection East and South Asia in the world economy and international economic relations amid Lomonosov-2021 conference. The materials of the thesis were presented at the third All-Russian Scientific and Practical Conference of Young Scientists “Comprehending the East” («Осмысляя Восток») it the section “Far Eastern Studies”, subsection “History and International Relations” (East Asia) organized by the Humanities Oriental Faculty of the State Academic University and by the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Moreover, the results of the study were introduced at the MGIMO University amid the conference «Vietnam in the modern system of international relations: in search of answers to new challenges» in the section of Domestic and Foreign Policy of Vietnam. Finally, the author discussed the results at the II Scientific conference Orbes Politici for undergraduate and graduate students and young scientists, organized by the School of Political Studies of the Institute of Social Sciences (ISC) RANEPA in the section “Problems of Global and Regional Development”.