Основные способы прогнозирования действия новых акторов международных отношений в условиях мягкой силы
Выпускная квалификационная работа посвящена основным способам прогнозирования акторов международных отношений. Были исследованы принципы прогнозирования акторов и их место в контексте мягкой силы. Также были представлены параметры игры и модели игр, которые влияют на процесс принятия решений. Также ВКР включает в себя кейс, в котором были проанализированы ключевые аспекты создания прогноза.
The Relevance of the topic. The globalization and digitalization processes started the changing of international relations. New actors have come to the world arena, which influenced the reality and world order. The new system of intentional relations faced new challenges and new connections between different institutions, most of them are new to the world. It makes it possible to find and use new sources and resources and change the sense of power in previous understanding. The one that thing stayed as it was the power in any of its forms is the aim of actors.
J. Nye was one of those who tried to define this new way of controlling power. His idea of soft power became a response to uncertainty in previously apparent processes. “Soft Power” as a conception became a new instrument which started to be interesting for all actors of intentional relations. This idea started to be one of the concepts of new the world order. The conception was proposed without a strict frame; this makes it a theme of significant discussion. The idea of predicting something is a critical conception of control circumstances. That’s why a prediction is essential to understand how this or that decisions can be seen.
The borders of globalization change the existed borders of power understanding. In a new era, military power such as a number of tanks, nuclear missiles, a number of soldiers and others became meaningless in comparison with the level of life, legal system and economics success the ability to attract become something more than fear of the weapon.
This creates a situation of willing to control and understand the ongoing process. That start the interest to predict and analyze this process.
The Object of the master thesis is – the international actors in the soft power process.
The Subject of master thesis is – prediction analytics of soft power actors’ actions.
Aim of master thesis: To define main features in prediction of actors in soft power context and possibilities of predictions.
To reach this aim were formulated extra tasks:
• To determine new possible sources and resources of soft power.
• To determine the possibility of predicting actors by their differences in their place in soft power.
• To study the theoretical foundations of the concept of “soft power” formulated by foreign and domestic researchers.
The Geographical framework of the study: the process of globalization changed the borders and speed of processes, that’s why narrowing the frames its tough question and even can be a denial of some objective data.
The degree of elaboration of the topic: The theme of power and influence has always been one of the most relevant in the theory of international relations. In their works, representatives of all theoretical schools addressed her: realism, liberal tradition, geopolitics, structuralism. The nature of the power of international actors was written by G. Morgenthau3, K. Norr4, J.Mirsheimer , R.Kline, K.Waltz, G. Kissinger, W. Fulbright and others. The nuances of the phenomenon of “power”, which can also be expressed in the form of power, influences, powers, were theoretically developed in the works of A.Wolpers, J. Hart, R.Arona. A significant contribution to the understanding of the transformations that have occurred with the phenomenon of “power” in international relations, with the advent of the era of globalization, has been made by the studies of R. Cohan and J. Nye, D. Baldwin, S. Strange.
The concept of “soft power”, was formulated by Harvard scientist J. Nye, opened a new page in theoretical and practical research of the phenomenon of “power” in international relations. In the figurative expression of J. Mattern, the concept of “soft power” has captured the imagination of both scientists and politicians around the world. Some researchers concentrated on criticism, refinements and theoretical development of the concept of “soft power” (for example, Ying Fan, R. Biegon, A. Bohas, C. Lane, R. Cooper, E. Wilson, J. Melissen) , others based on the ideas of J. Nye, they formulated and presented to the international community their author’s concepts of power in the era of globalization (for example, the concepts of M. Kounalakis and A. Simony, L. Rochelle, A. Miskimmon, B. O‘Laughlin, J. Gallarotti and A. Vuving).
Another important place of soft power is a Russian school of soft power researchers. N. Tsvetkova, and A. Vladimirovoy, V. Koroleva, A. Trunin made a great contribution to the understanding of foreign cultural policy, higher education programs, student exchanges, and public diplomacy and many other basic tools of soft power.
In the same time school of prediction was developing. Game theory is one of the most popular concepts of interaction between different players. The game theory got popularity because of its ability to find or create circumstances for analysis. Game theory is a vast verity of models throw which there are: math algorithms, prisoners dilemma, Nash equilibrium, trees of games and many other.
This helps to determine different activity with different approaches. For prediction, theories are one of the most important parts of analysis in international relations because theory influence on decision making process.
Among the GT researchers M. Mangel and F. Samaniego, E.G. Rodrigues, D. Michel, J.S. Maximum,G.J. Mailath,, A. Dixit, B. Nalebuff, Nolan McCarty and Adam Meiowtitz provided lots of models and some explanation to game theory in political and economic studies.
Combination of strategical consideration of soft power wasn’t proposed in any schools of International Relations; there were no complex researches about this topic where would be reviewed soft power from GT point of view.
During the research was used bases of different state departments and statistical and theoretical materials.
The Methodology of research is a complex of theories, methods and approaches which allowed create a multi-level system of analysis and analytics of the process of developing and functioning of soft power mechanisms.
As a theoretical basis of the research were used constructivism in the theory of international relations. Constructivism makes it possible to consider international relations system as a construct which is created during the process of interaction.
For research were used such methods as system, quality and quantity, institutional, neo-institutional, comparative, historical, mathematical and game theory methods. The process of research of topic as well includes borrowed methods from other disciplines such as law and marketing. From law were taken imperative and dispositive methods, from marketing were taken cabinet method.
As well were used multi-disciplinary principles such as universalism, complex, system, connections, development and fundamentals of political science about international relations.
As a source base of research were used reports and statistics of state bureaus and organizations and non-state actors and mass media for creating a complex picture in social sphere during different spheres. In some cases, mass media can not only be the reporter of the specific situation but an indicator of social reaction for something which is happening and/or likely to happen.
Master thesis consist of introduction; three chapters; nine subchapters; conclusion; list of documentary and literature; and abbreviation list.
List of primary documents and literature
• Primary sources
Documents
• 12 U.S. Code §619, Capital stock: by whom held; ownership of capital stock by foreign bank, U.S. code, Dec. 23, 1913, ch. 6, § 25A (par.), formerly § 25(a), as added Dec. 24, 1919, ch. 18, 41 Stat. 378; amended Aug. 23, 1935, ch. 614, title III, § 329, 49 Stat. 717; Pub. L. 95–369, § 3(f), Sept. 17, 1978, 92 Stat. 609; Pub. L. 100–86, title I, § 102(c)(1), Aug. 10, 1987, 101 Stat. 566; renumbered § 25A, Pub. L. 102–242, title I, § 142(e)(2), Dec. 19, 1991, 105 Stat. 2281. URL:https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/12/619 [Application date: 13.03.20]
• CREST, General CIA Records, CIA-RDP91-00901R000600100008-6, Class K, release date Oct. 18.2005, creation date Dec. 19.2016, ITT in Chile, p.8, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 URL:https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/document/cia-rdp91-00901r000600100008-6 [Application date 22.03.20]
• US security and exchange commission, Washington, D.C. 20549, Form 10-K, Apple Inc., Part I, Item 2, p. 5, Part III, Item 8, p. 64, [Application date: 23.01.20].
• Український центр економічних і політичних досліджень імені Олександра Разумкова, Національна Безпека і Оборона, № 4-5, 2013, с. 104, 111.
Directories
• Arutunova N.D., Linguistic encyclopedia dictionary, M., 1990, p. 128
• Oxford dictionary, Oxford University Press, 2010, definition “livable”, p. 142
Reports
• Federal Election Commission United States of America, URL: https://www.fec.gov/data/disbursements/?data_type=processed&committee_id=C00580100&recipient_name=cambridge+analytica&two_year_transaction_period=2016&min_date=01%2F01%2F2015&max_date=12%2F31%2F2016 [Application date 22.02.20]
• Press statements and answers to journalists’ questions following talks with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Aug 12 2008, URL:http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/1072 [Application date 20.02.20]
• Putin V., press conference about Ukraine situation, Mar 04.03.14, URL:президент.рф/выступления/20366 [Application date 8.08.2014]
• Ratinggroup, На перепутье или интеграционные ребусы, социологическое исследование, 11.04.2013, URL:http://ratinggroup.ua/ru/research/ukraine/na_perepute_ili_integracionnye_rebusy.html [Aplication date 14.02.20]
• Rattinggroup, Dynamics of ideological markers, social research, Dec 27 2012, URL:http: //www.info@ratinggroup.com.ua [Application date 27.12.2019]
• Report to the Committee on Foreign Relations US Senate by the Subcommittee on Multinational Corporations, U.S. government printing office, Washington, 1973 p. 5, URL:http://americanempireproject.com/empiresworkshop/chapter1/TheTwentiethCentury-CompletingTheRevolution/ITTInChile1970-1971.pdf [Application date 12.02.20]
• Rodriguez E.G, Stine, Paper and Scissors. Introduction in Game Theory, 2012, p. 155-157
Websites
• Apple©, official website, Apple Home Kit, URL:https://www.apple.com/ios/home/ [Application date 08.04.2020].
• Apple©, official website, ConnectED, URL:https://www.apple.com/connectED/schools/ [Application date 08.04.2020].
• Apple©, official website, iTunes U, URL:https://apps.apple.com/us/app/itunes-u/id490217893 [Application date 08.04.2020].
• British Petroleum, official website, URL:https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/what-we-do.html [Application date 22.02.20]
• Crunch base, URL:https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/cambridge-analytica#section-overview [application date 15.04.20]
• Gazprom Neft, official website, press-center, URL:https://www.gazprom-neft.com/press-center/news/gazprom-neft-launches-first-campaign-advertising-its-corporate-brand/ [application date 22.02.20]
• HUAWEI, official website, about us, URL: https://consumer.huawei.com/en/about-us/ [application date 22.02.20]
• Olympic Games, URL:https://www.olympic.org/usain-bolt [Application date 28.04.20]
• Volkswagen, official website, about us, URL:https://www.vw.com/the-community-driven-promise/ [Application date 22.02.20]
• WIPO World Intellectual Property Organization, database, Apple, URL:https://www.wipo.int/tools/en/gsearch.html?cx=016458537594905406506%3Ahmturfwvzzq&language=en&hl=en&lr=&cof=FORID%3A11&tab=1&q=Apple#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=Apple&gsc.page=1 [application date: 23.01.20]
II. Secondary Sources
Books
• Baldwin, D, Mastering Tableau, Birmingham, UK: Packt Publishing, 413 p.
• Bohas A. The Paradox of Anti-Americanism: Reflection on the Shallow Concept of Soft Power // Global Society, Vol. 20, No. 4, October, 2006. P.142.
• Carr E.H., The twenty Years’ Crisis, 1919-1939: An Introduction to the Study of International Relations; Harper Perennial, 450th edition, 1964, p. 102
• Foucault M., The Will to Truth: Beyond Knowledge, Power, and Sexuality, M., Castal, 1996, p. 48, 448
• Hanson P., The Rise and Fall of the The Soviet Economy : An Economic History of the USSR 1945 – 1991, London, 2014, 60 p.
• Hattem R., Mastering Python, Birmingham, UK : Packt Publishing, 2016, 100 p.
• Hayden C., The Rhetoric of Soft Power : Public Diplomacy in Global Contexts, Lanham, Md : Lexington Books. 2012, p. 31
• Herz J.H. Idealist International and Security Dilemma // World politics. – 1950. – C.2, p. 157-180.
• Hobbes T., Leviathen, Floated press, 2009, p. 177
• Kaminski S., Python 3, Berlin, De Gruyter Oldenbourg, 2016, 100 p.
• Kant I., Perpetual Peace, M., 2012, 72 p.
• Kara-Mursa S.G., Conciseness manipulation, M., Algorithm, 2000, p.47
• Kotler P., Keller L.K., Marketing Management, Pearson, 14th edition, 2011, p. 816
• Krukova S., Soldatova E., To kill the chieftain”, “Russian reporter”, 2013, №49, p. 41
• Kumpan V.A. / Quantity and Quality methods in International Relations / Krasnodar / KUBSU / 2015 / 128 p.
• Layne Ch. The Unbearable Lightness of Soft Power // Soft power and US foreign policy : theoretical, historical and contemporary perspectives.- Routledge studies in US foreign policy. P.71.
• Linoff, G. Data Analysis Using SQL and Excel, Indianpolis, wiley, 2008, p. 15, 73
• Mangel M. and Samaniego F., Abraham Wald’s work on aircraft survivability, London, 2008, p. 82
• Martin. T., Империя «положительной деятельности», M, 2004, p. 111.
• Morgenthau and Kenneth Thompson, Politics Among Nations, 6th edition, NY, McGraw-Hill, 1985, p. 104
• Nye J. (Jr.) Cyber Power. Belfer Center for Science & International Affairs (May, 2010).
• Nye J. (Jr.) Soft Power and American Foreign Policy // Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 119, No. 2 (Summer, 2004). P.267.
• Nye J. (Jr.) Soft Power. The Means to Success in World Politics. – New York: Public Affairs, 2004. P.76, 142, 160, 162.
• Nye J. (Jr.) The Paradox of American Power: Why the World’s Only Superpower Can’t Go It Alone. Oxford University Press, 2002. P.8, 10.
• Nye J.( Jr.) Public Diplomacy and Soft Power // The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science. Vol. 616, Public Diplomacy in a Changing World (Mar., 2008). P.102, 105.
• Nye J.( Jr.), Armitage R. CSIS Commission on Smart Power: A Smarter, More Secure America .A report for the Center for Strategic & International Studies (November, 2007). P.13.
• Poundstone, Prisoner’s Dilemma, 8–9; and Sylvia Nasar, A Beautiful Mind, p. 118–119.
• Sakya R., Front line Ukraine, M., 2015, p.70
• Sheldon R. and Moes G., Beginning MySQL, Indianopolis, Wrox, 2005, p. 32
• Ward, Michael D.; Ahlquist, John S. (2018). Maximum Likelihood for Social Science: Strategies for Analysis. Cambridge University Press, 2018. p. 36. Wiley, iCon Steve Jobs: The Greatest Second Act in the History of Business, 1st edition, 2005, 369 p.
• Zetter, Lionel. Lobbying: The Art of Political Persuasion. Harriman House, 2008, p. 128
• Шульга М.О., Геополітичні Орієнтації населення і безпеки України, Київ, ТОВ «Друкарня «Бізнесполіграф», 2009, с. 56,
Articles / Journals
• Bach D. and Unruh G.C., Business-Government Relations in a Global Economy: Broadening The Conceptual Map, URL: http://latienda.ie.edu/working_papers_economia/WP04-37.pdf (дата обращения 11.01.2020)
• Fan Y., “Soft Power: Power of attraction or confusion?”, Brunel University, 2008, p. 16, 22 URL:https://bura.brunel.ac.uk/bitstream/2438/1594/3/FullText.pdf [application date 24.05.20]
• Pashina N.P., Crisis of political identity of Ukrainian citizens: foreign policy aspect, Luhanskiy National Agrarian University, Ukraine, p. 6, URL:https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/krizis-politicheskoy-identichnosti-ukrainskih-grazhdan-vneshnepoliticheskiy-aspekt/viewer [Application date: 22.01.20]
• Фесенко В., Що змінилося за 20 років, Українська правда, 15th edition, 2011, URL:http://www.pravda.com.ua/Fessenko/shco_zminilosia_za_20_rokiv [Application date 19.12.19]
III. Mass Media
Articles
• Carr R., Case Study: Kraft’s takeover of Cadbuy, Jan 9 2012, URL:https://www.ft.com/content/1cb06d30-332f-11e1-a51e-00144feabdc0 [Application date: 12.12.19]
• Gallarotti G. Soft Power: What it is, Why it‘s Important, and the Conditions Under Which it Can Be Effectively Used. 2011. Division II Faculty Publications. Paper 57.P.2.
• Geoghegan P., Fresh links found between Brexit donor, Cambridge Analytica and Trump’s strategist, the Wire, URL:https://thewire.in/world/brexit-bankroller-arron-banks-cambridge-analytica-and-trumps-strategist-emails-reveal-fresh-links [Application date 24.05.20]
• Mcclory J., The Soft Power 30, A Global Ranking of Soft Power 2019, USC center on Public Diplomacy, Portland, 2019, p. 11, 26, URL:https://softpower30.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/The-Soft-Power-30-Report-2019-1.pdf [Application date: 23.01.20]
• MLA (Modern Language Assoc.) Trask, Andrew, and Andrew DeGuire. Betting the Company : Complex Negotiation Strategies for Law and Business. Oxford University Press, 2013.
• Stern L.N., GE and Westinghouse, NY university, Stern, 2008, 5 p., URL:http://luiscabral.net/economics/teaching/gewestinghouse.pdf [Application date: 22.03.20]
• Tracy B., The Psychology of Selling: Increase your sales faster and easier than you ever thought possible, Thomas Nelson (publisher), 1st edition, 2006, p. 240
• URL:https://i-soc.com.ua/assets/files/library/shulga_gonbu.pdf [Application date 17.05.20]
• Vuving A. How Soft Power Works. American Political Science Association annual meeting, Toronto. September 3, 2009. P.3, 4, 10. URL: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1466220 [Application date: 22.04.20]
Newspapers
• BBC news, Cambridge Analytica: The data firm’s global influence, March 22 2018, URL:https://www.bbc.com/news/world-43476762 [Application date 16.04.20]
• BBC News, Chile inquiry confirms President Allende killed himself, July 19 2011, URL:https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-14210729 [Application date 17.05.20]
• Delo.ua, “Пленки Деркача”: Офис генпрокурора завел на Порошенко новое дело о “госизмене”, May 20 2020, URL:https://delo.ua/econonomyandpoliticsinukraine/plenki-derkacha-ofis-genprokurora-zavel-na-por-368665/ [Application date 21.05.20]
• Detrow S., What did Cambridge Analytica do during the 2016 Election?, March 20, 2018, URL:https://www.npr.org/2018/03/20/595338116/what-did-cambridge-analytica-do-during-the-2016-election [Application date 22.02.20]
• Grishkin D., ФАС разрешила «Газпрому» использовать лозунг «национальное достояние», vedomosti, Jan 19 2016, URL:https://www.vedomosti.ru/technology/articles/2016/01/19/624634-fas-razreshila [application date: 22.02.20]
• Hagen L., Senate Committee Authorizes in GOP’s Hunter Bider-Burisma Investigation, May 20 2020, URL:https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2020-05-20/senate-committee-authorizes-subpoena-in-gops-hunter-biden-burisma-investigation [Application date 21.05.20]
• Hern A., The Guardian, Cambridge Analytica: how did it turns clicks into votes?, May 6 2018, URL:https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/may/06/cambridge-analytica-how-turn-clicks-into-votes-christopher-wylie [Application date 16.04.20]
• Jensen M.C., Chile Says it will Nationalize I.T.T. Unit in Days, NY Times, sept. 16 1971, URL:https://www.nytimes.com/1971/09/16/archives/chile-says-it-will-nationalize-itt-unit-in-days.html [Application date: 11.08.2015]
• Kovalev A., “Эксперты «России сегодня» выпустили доклад о том, что половина западных статей про Россию — негативные. Многие из них написал один и тот же британский журналист”, Medusa, Oct 23 2019 [Application date 23.10.20]
• Odnako, В Харькове и Луганске создают, Feb 05 2014, URL:http://odnako.su/news/ukraine/-5562-v-harkove-i-luganske-sozdayut–narodnye-drujiny–po-ohrane-adminzdaniy/ [Application date 20.04.20]
• Tass, Gas conflict Russia and Ukraine, URL:https://tass.ru/gazovyy-konflikt-rossii-i-ukrainy [Application date 22.04.20]
• Ventura L., World’s Largest Companies 2019, Global Finance, May 14 2020, URL:https://www.gfmag.com/global-data/economic-data/largest-companies [Application date: 14.05.20]
• Главком, Партия регионов назвала всех вражеских агентов в Украине (Полный Список), Dec 11 2013, URL:http://0s.m5wgc5tdn5ws45lb.cmle.ru/publications/123151-partija-regionov-nazvala-vseh-vrazheskih-agentov-v-ukraine-polnyj-spisok.html [Application date 16.05.20]
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