Торговля товарами между ЕАЭС и Турцией: перспективы либерализации

Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and Turkey are powerful regional economies with promising trade, infrastructure and investment potential. The economic relationships, cooperation and bilateral institutional environment between countries are developing rapidly.
The possibility of Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Turkey and EAEU could create beneficial conditions for further developments of trade and economic cooperation. Exploration of possible scope of potential FTA and analysis of sensitivities of specific sectors determine a relevance of the study.
The goal of the study is to to evaluate potential effects of free trade agreement on existing trade flows and to construct a systemic analysis of possibilities to establish a FTA between member states of EAEU and Turkey, consentrating on issues of trade liberalization by lowering customs duties.
This study focuses on analyzis of possible benefits and drawbacks of potential FTA between Turkey and EAEU.
Based on that, basic aims of the study include:
1. Analyzing economic linkages between Turkey and the
EAEU.
2. Identifying possible benefits that Turkey and EAEU
would derive from consistent FTA.
3. Assessing areas of cooperation such as energy,
construction and technology.
4. Evaluating an impact of liberalisation of tariffs and
non-tariff measures on trade in goods.
5. Summarizing bilateral trade and economic relations and foreign economic policies.
The main objectives of the study include:
1. To analyze bilateral economic linkages, macroeconomic
situation, and existing relevant policy regimes.
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2. To put recent macroeconomic and trade data for all analized countries in a broader comparative context.
3. To find feasibility of FTA between Turkey and the EAEU, by estimating gravity model of trade and partial equilibrium model.
The structure of the study will include an owerview of some essential features of EAEU Member States economies and Turkish economy, existing institutional framework for economic cooperation, bilateral trade analysis, overview of the EAEU and Turkish tariff regulation and non-tariff measures affecting mutual trade in goods.
The paper also presents an analysis of the main areas of research in post- Soviet and Central Asian regional integration by both Russian and international scientific communities. It should be noted that the critical review focuses on the research of Russian scientists, without claiming to fully take into account the works of scientists from Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Belarus and other CIS countries.
Further, it describes specific product sectors of economic importance to both countries and performance of EAEU Member States and Turkey and their foreign economic policy in terms of implementation of WTO Agreements. Moreover, in order to determine potential gains of bilateral trade between EAEU and Turkey, gravity framework of bilateral trade flows was conducted to quantify trade effect. In addition, we use a combination of dummy variables in a gravity model that allows us to separate trade creation effects from trade diversion effects.
The effects of trade policy changes were also captured be estimating partial-equilibrium model. More precisely, the impacts of full trade liberalization are stimulated with SMART Simulation Tools, a methodology developed by World Integrated Trade Solutions (WITS) database.
In this research, FTA is understood as good-only agreement, which covers substantially all goods allowing the countries to take advantage of a considerable complementarity of their economies.